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AUDUSD: Consolidating at year low

The Chinese demand for raw materials may not necessarily rebound as quickly as overall economic activity, which could be a problem for Australia. The recent devaluation of the Yuan has reduced the purchasing power of Chinese businesses and investors which may lead to further weakening of demand for Australian natural resources.

While the Federal Reserve maintained current interest rate levels, it is widely believed that it is a matter of time before the central bank begins to raise rates. The Reserve Bank of Australia, on the other hand, is forecast to lower the cash rate to 1.5% next year. The unemployment rate is expected to creep up to 6.5% by November, which could further pressure the Australian Dollar.

The AUDUSD fell 1.3% since the start of the month and plunged 13.1% year to date, plus is in well-established bearish phase. The currency fell last week with a wide range after a clear rejection of the 10-day moving average and closed in the red near the low of the week. The Stochastic is showing a bullish momentum and crossing above the 20 line indicating a buy signal although it is below the 50 mid line.

Expecting a downward move to a Fibonacci extension at 0.6190 on a break below a weekly support at 0.6896 (scenario 1) and a break above previous week high at 0.7197 may throw the pair to a weekly resistance at 0.7533 (scenario 2).


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