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EURUSD: Made new year-to-date low

Since the beginning of the year, the currency pair lost 5.0% nonetheless, last week managed to drop more than 1.0% but remains in a bearish phase since late July.

Last week the EURUSD plunged with a wide range and closed near the low of the week, in addition, managed to close below the previous week low, which suggests a strong bearish momentum.

The stochastic is showing an oversold market although is still displaying a strong bearish momentum.

After 10 week of sideways consolidation, the currency pair decided to break it to the down side making a new year-to-date low at 1.1372. Yet, last week we had an anomaly driven by a wide body with low volume. Additionally the confluence of the 200-week moving average now at 1.1365 with a weekly support at 1.1312 suggests that an upward correction might be on the way.

Expecting an upward move to the 23.6 Fibonacci retracement at 1.1828 (scenario 1) or even up to the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement at 1.1834 (scenario 2) on a break bounce from the 200-week moving average now at 1.1365. However, a bounce from the 23.6 Fibonacci retracement at 1.1828 could trigger another bearish run down toward 2018 low at 1.1372 (scenario 3).