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FTSE 100: Holding at the 50-week moving average

Since the beginning of the year, the main UK index gain more than 3.0% but last week fell almost 1.0% and made a phase change, shifting from a warning to a distribution phase.

Last week the main UK index tried to rally but found enough selling pressure near the previous week high to reverse and closed near the low of the week, in addition the index managed to close below the previous week low, which suggests a strong bearish momentum.

The stochastic is showing a strong bearish momentum although is still above the above the 50 mid line.

Seems like the smart money as stated to take profits to collect their yearly bonus as the retail trades continue to buy in hopes that the index will make another push upward. Therefore, the UK main index has made the year high at 7,588 and I am not expecting new highs for 2017.

Expecting a downward move to a key level at 7,084.5 (scenario 1) on a break below a key level at 7,287.5 and a bounce from a weekly resistance at 7,506.5 could set in motion another profit taking toward other key level at 7,287.5 (scenario 2).

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